The Facilities Master Plan projected that the district would grow at a rapid rate for the next 25 years. In fact, our enrollment grew for a year or so, and has declined every year since 1997.
In 1996, the board adapted a Facilities Master Plan, setting the district's policy for facilities development for the following 25 years.
Nine years later, we know that the assumptions and projections made by the Plan are badly mistaken, yet we continue to follow the Plan, like a driver who has taken a wrong turn, but refuses to stop to ask directions.
The Facilities Master Plan projected that the district would grow at a rapid rate for the next 25 years. In fact, our enrollment grew for a year or so, and has declined every year since 1997.
Overall enrollment has declined even while high school enrollment has increased (due largely to a lower dropout rate in grades 11-12).
The Plan arrives at its growth rate in part by asserting that the district would grow by 3.49% a year. The fact that Half Moon Bay had a 3% growth cap didn't discourage the authors; they suggested that the growth cap might be "rescinded". Of course, we know now that the 3% cap was lowered by an overwhelming vote of the people to 1%.
Middle school enrollment trends are particularly relevant to the middle-school siting question. Cunha Principal Mike Andrews sees middle school enrollment dropping to 700 in the next few years.
Even though the Facilities Master Plan got many things wrong, it did provide for its own correction. The Plan mandates that the Board hold annual public hearings, to determine whether any elements of the Plan need to be corrected.
The Board, however, yet to hold a single public hearing on the subject, even though the Plan badly needs correction.